The Grauniad reports today on a study that shows shifting to biofuels 'will release between two and nine times more carbon gases over the next 30 years than fossil fuels'. This is because forest will generally be cleared to grow it. That forest, combined with the fossil fuel the biofuel would have replaced, equals less carbon than no forest and biofuel production. Also:
Britain is committed to substituting 10% of its transport fuel with biofuels under Europe-wide plans to slash carbon emissions by 2020... Around 40% of Europe's agricultural land would be needed to grow biofuel crops to meet the 10% fossil fuel substitution target.
So, of course, there'll be enormous pressure to outsource it. One author of the study noted: 'Brazil, Paraguay, Indonesia among others have huge deforestation programmes to supply the world biofuel market.'
Monbiot's been saying this for a while, but its still interesting to see more evidence. The authors point out that it means going the biofuel route is 'a mistake in climate change terms.' The thing is, evidence isn't likely to stop the biofuel juggernaut. In the US, for example, it'll be the same farming lobby growing it that also quite happily gets the US government to buy its surplus crop and ship it to developing countries, buggering up their local markets in the process, with 'a gift from the American people' stencilled on the bags.
Though perhaps combatting climate change isn't the main motivation: maybe its simply pre-empting the oil running out so that our economies can carry on regardless, while maybe getting out of the Middle East. It makes the relationship between powerful and weak countries considerably more transparent, though, doesn't it? You stick to farming and grow our fuel for us, because there's no way we have the land to do it ourselves.
The economics of it is entirely sound, of course. It just means that some places have a comparative advantage in growing car-food because they have more land. Then they'll have dollar and can afford to buy some food for themselves. That is, if they can afford to buy any because human-food crops have rocketed up in price, in line with car-food crops. Ah, but it'll be OK, coz the US can carry on dumping its unwanted grain on them.
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